New role is seen for older workers

Older workers, often pushed out the door amid the corporatelayoffs of the 1980s and 1990s, are likely to emerge over comingyears as hot prospects in the job market, a new study has concluded.

"Employers are going to have to make a 180-degree shift from the1980s' downsizing mentality, when the urge was to slim down andcollapse the managerial hierarchy," said Richard W. Judy, a co-authorof the Hudson Institute study.

Instead, Judy said, employers will overhaul their workplaces andemployment practices to find ways to hire and retain aging babyboomers.The study by Hudson, a conservative nonprofit group based inIndianapolis, is a followup to Hudson's much-promoted 1987 study,Workforce 2000, which predicted a substantial influx of women,minorities and immigrants into the labor force.The new Hudson report anticipates a continuing, albeit gradual,increase in women and minorities in the workplace. It predicts thatthe portion of the work force consisting of minorities will edge upfrom 23 percent in 1994 to 26 percent in 2005. Likewise, thepercentage of women is expected to inch up from 46 percent to 48percent over the same period.The new report repeats previous warnings that employersincreasingly will struggle to find workers with badly needed,technologically up-to-date job skills.Judy, a Harvard-trained economist and former businessman, saidsome of the thirst for skilled employees will be eased by increasedautomation or by shifting work overseas. But on top of that, hepredicted, employers will lure aging baby boomers back to work withhigher pay, flexible schedules and, where possible, increased use oftelecommuting.So far, however, Judy acknowledged, most big companies haven'trecognized the assets that older workers provide.Judy said part of the impetus for increasing employment of olderworkers will come from the aging baby boomers themselves. Many willgrow bored with retirement, he said, and others will need the money."They haven't saved enough, and Social Security benefits aregoing to be eroded one way or another," Judy said.For employers, he said, the coming trend will present risks andmanagement challenges. One of the problems will be that having moreolder employees in the workplace may mean fewer promotionopportunities and more frustration for younger staffers, Judy said.