The 3-year-olds who competed in last year's Triple Crown will bea benchmark by which future generations are measured.
Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, Free House and Touch Gold werefast, consistent and gutsy. They battled relentlessly each time theyfaced each other, and generated excitement that spread far beyond thenormal horse racing audience. When the Triple Crown series was over,fans wondered how long they would have to wait to see such a good3-year-old crop again.
The answer to that question appears to be: not very long. Thecolts preparing for the 1998 Triple Crown series appear to be anexceptional group. Indeed, it is possible that three top contenderscould take undefeated records into the May 2 Kentucky Derby. Itremains to be seen whether this will be an exceptional group of Derbyhorses - the stamina of many is questionable - but the raw talent isthere.I measure horses principally by how fast they run, and it wasevident before last year's classics that the class of '97 was astrong one. Four weeks before the Derby, four horses had earned aBeyer Speed Figure of 107, a solid mark: Silver Charm: 110; FreeHouse: 110; Pulpit: 108; Acceptable: 107.At a comparable stage of the current season, the 3-year-old cropseems to be deeper and faster. These are the top speed figuresearned by the leaders: Event of the Year: 114; Lil's Lad: 113; IndianCharlie: 112; Artax: 109; Coronado's Quest: 109; Real Quiet: 108;Halory Hunter: 108; Favorite Trick: 107; Cape Town: 107.This generation is loaded with horses possessing star potential.Favorite Trick, of course, already is a star. He became the first2-year-old since Secretariat to win the horse of the year title, andif he wins the Arkansas Derby next Saturday he will take a 10-for-10career record to Churchill Downs. Event of the Year already has runhis final Derby prep race, a smashing victory in the Jim Beam Stakesat Turfway Park, and will go into the Derby with a 4-for-4 record.Indian Charlie captured all three of his starts in impressive fashionbefore racing Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby.Yet many questions still surround the leading 3-year-olds,adding intrigue to the final prep races and the Derby itself.Sufficient seasoning is essential for Derby horses, and lightly racedlate bloomers regularly fail at Churchill Downs. So even if Event ofthe Year has the best speed figure, history will be against him. Notsince 1915 has a horse with four or fewer career starts won theDerby.The distance-running ability of many top 3-year-olds also isuncertain. Despite his imposing record, Favorite Trick is notconsidered a standout favorite for the Derby because of hissprint-oriented bloodlines. The other leaders of this generationhave stouter pedigrees, but many of them are speedsters who figure tonegate each other when they run head-to-head. That's what happenedin the Florida Derby. Lil's Lad may be the most brilliant horse ofhis generation, but he is a one-dimensional front-runner, and hisduel with Coronado's Quest led to the defeat of both.A similar scenario might develop in Saturday's Santa AnitaDerby, for three of the prime contenders all possessed high speed.Orville N Wilbur's can rocket a half-mile in 44 seconds or so, andtrainer Wally Dollase has been convinced that he is only effective ifhe can take the early lead. So when jockey Corey Nakatani gunsOrville N Wilbur's from the gate, Gary Stevens will try to forceIndian Charlie to sit behind the leader. Chris McCarron will try todo the same with the favored Artax, who has won two straight stakesraces by battling for the lead all the way. If these horses can'trestrain their speed, and they all get caught in a destructive fightfor the lead, they will set up the $750,000 race for Real Quiet.is2-for-11 record is hardly imposing, but he can win because he is thelone contender with a solid finishing kick.What happened in the Florida Derby, and what might happen in theSanta Anita Derby, very likely is to happen in the Kentucky Derby:The speed horses annihilate each other and set up the race for a darkhorse charging from behind.
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